Iran’s dictatorship shows the classic signs of fatigue that portend the end stages of a regime
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The Iranian regime is in dire straits. Thanks to the decisive actions of President Trump and the State of Israel, the Islamic Republic is no longer the regional power it once was, and it now faces crises on every front. Iran’s military infrastructure has been seriously degraded, and its illicit nuclear program has been severely decimated. Its network of proxies throughout the Middle East is disintegrating: Hezbollah is seriously diminished; the Assad dynasty has collapsed; Iranian-backed militias in Iraq face mounting political and public backlash; and Hamas is a shadow of its former self.
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The domestic situation is also bleak. Thanks to chronic economic mismanagement, corruption and international isolation, the economy is in shambles and the country is running out of water. Lacking popular legitimacy and unable to deliver for its people, the regime’s only remaining instrument of control is rule by fear.
Despite these many weaknesses, there are still so many in the West who continue to labor under the misapprehension that there’s no alternative to the current government.
The Iranian people have made their preference abundantly clear in repeated waves of uprisings. They do not want a theocracy or a monarchy – they want a republic that is free, democratic, and accountable to the citizenry.
This is wrong on every level. It erases the aspirations of millions of Iranians who have risked their lives to demand change. It ignores the existence of a well-organized, democratic opposition that has spent more than four decades fighting the mullahs and preparing for the day after the theocracy falls. And it perpetuates the regime’s propaganda that the West must tolerate its brutality because the alternative is chaos.
The Iranian people have made their preference abundantly clear in repeated waves of uprisings. They do not want a theocracy or a monarchy – they want a republic that is free, democratic and accountable to the citizenry.
Iran’s organized pro-democracy movement has the capacity, popular support and systematic plan needed to replace the moribund, murderous mullah-cracy with a government that reflects the will of the Iranian people. This force for positive change has a credible blueprint for a democratic Iran that includes free elections, the rule of law, the separation of religion and state, and a commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons.
This movement does not want American troops on the ground or any kind of external regime change. It has asked only that the United States and its allies support the Iranian people’s demand for self-determination and deny the regime access to the resources it relies upon to survive.
We know from history that the fall of authoritarian regimes often appears impossible until it is suddenly upon us. When I served in West Germany as a cavalry officer in the late 1980s, the idea that the Berlin Wall would come down just a few months after my tour ended would have seemed like science fiction, yet that’s exactly what happened.
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Even after nearly 14 years of civil war, no one predicted the fall of Assad in Syria, yet it seemed to crumble all at once. Today, Iran’s dictatorship shows the classic signs of fatigue that portend the end stages of a regime: economic exhaustion, internal fragmentation, eroding deterrence and a population no longer willing to live under clerical rule.
The task for U.S. policymakers is not to predict the exact moment when the regime collapses, but to shape the environment so that when it does fall, the outcome is stability rather than chaos. This requires an approach rooted in realism and willing to dispense with the failed diplomatic formulas of the past.
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The latter trait has characterized President Trump’s Iran policies in both his first and second administrations. He now has the opportunity to round out his historic accomplishments in the Middle East with a truly transformational achievement and help hasten the demise of the Iranian regime.
The benefits of such a shift would be incalculable. Terrorists would lose their primary sponsor; America’s adversaries would lose a key outpost in the Middle East; incredible economic opportunities in the maritime and energy sectors would develop; and a highly educated, globally connected Iranian population could emerge as a natural economic and political partner for the United States.
No outside force can or should affect regime change inside Iran – that is a job for the Iranian people. But we can help them by ramping up the pressure externally, and by supporting the Iranian people seeking a peaceful, democratic, pro-Western future in their desire for change.
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Our task is simple: stand with the Iranian people, recognize the democratic vision they have chosen, and deny the ruling clerics the money, legitimacy and impunity they rely on for survival.
When the day of change arrives – and it will – the U.S. should put itself in the best possible position to reap the benefits and enter into a new era of friendship with the Iranian people.
Parazonn 