Opening weekend tracking puts it tens of millions behind similar films
Seen and Unseen: The latest ‘Star Wars’ series is flying its pride colors
President Biden’s ‘rough time’ getting off stage… Kamala’s late-night barrel of laughs… Alec Baldwin’s family show… Raymond Arroyo has it all on ‘The Ingraham Angle’s’ Seen and Unseen.
When The Walt Disney Company bought out Lucasfilm and, by extension, the “Star Wars” universe, expectations were that the two combined companies would make Hollywood’s most popular franchise even bigger.
Instead of going decades between “Star Wars” movies, Disney would put its creative might behind more consistent releases and expanding the universe. The company would release movies as part of the “core” stories, then do films or shows that focused on side characters or other stories.
Initially, it seemed like the approach, led primarily by then-Lucasfilm head Kathleen Kennedy, would be a success. “The Force Awakens” was a gigantic success, and while it didn’t exactly reinvent the wheel creatively, it launched the new Disney era of “Star Wars” with a whopping $937 million domestic box office gross. Adjusted for inflation, that’s $1.24 billion.
Well, with few exceptions, almost everything to come out of the “Star Wars” universe since has degraded the brand and fan expectations. Yes, “Andor” is widely praised. The first season of “The Mandalorian” was a big hit. And “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” has seen its reputation improve since its release in 2016.
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On the other hand, there was the remarkably “woke” Disney+ show “The Acolyte,” which was canceled after one poorly viewed season. “The Last Jedi” and “The Rise of Skywalker” were widely disliked. Other movies like “Solo: A Star Wars Story” were critical and box office disappointments. And even “The Mandalorian” has seen its impact diminish.
Sure enough, the first “Star Wars” movie in nearly seven years, “The Mandalorian and Grogu” directed by Jon Favreau, is set to hit theaters in May. And with tracking data now hitting the industry, we can see just how bad things have gotten for Disney.
Jon Favreau, director of the upcoming film “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu,” speaks during the Walt Disney Studios presentation at CinemaCon on April 16, 2026, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. (Chris Pizzello/AP)
Tracking data shows little hope new ‘Star Wars’ movie will be a hit
You may not have heard much about it, but “The Mandalorian and Grogu” is a big deal for Disney. The first major theatrical release in the “Star Wars” universe since 2019. The Grogu character was a cultural phenomenon for a year or so, making the streaming show a must watch.
It’s also the first “Star Wars” film set outside the main trilogy since “Solo: A Star Wars Story” in 2018. That movie was viewed as a disappointment when it opened to just over $84 million domestically and grossed just $392 million globally.
Well, this latest attempt isn’t looking much better. Industry website Box Office Theory reported that the opening weekend box office prediction for “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” based on pre-release ticket sales, is just $71 million.
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Even “Solo’s” opening weekend, adjusted for inflation, would be about $110.5 million in today’s dollars. This latest “Star Wars” release is tracking to come in nearly $40 million behind that. While the film has a lower budget which has been estimated at around $166 million, this is still a disappointment. It may wind up breaking even or turning a small profit, but unless the international market surprises or word of mouth is strong, it won’t be a huge financial hit. And given the poor response to the trailers, word of mouth is more likely to be negative than positive.
Really, Disney has nobody to blame but themselves. Kathleen Kennedy had no plan for where she wanted the “Star Wars” franchise to go. They hired a different director for “The Last Jedi,” Rian Johnson, who had a totally different vision and view of what he wanted to make than J.J. Abrams. Then, after fans were furious with his take, desperately rushed back to Abrams to make “The Rise of Skywalker.” That film felt rushed, inconsistent, and lazy. Storylines built up in the previous movies fizzled out or were totally ignored, which made the lack of planning even more obvious.
A sculpture of Din Grogu from the TV series “The Mandalorian” is displayed at Comic Fan in the amusement park at Casa de Campo in Madrid, Spain, on June 23, 2024. (David Benito/Getty Images)
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Many of the Disney+ shows, instead of bringing new fans into the “Star Wars” universe, were moderately successful at best, or completely unwatchable at worst, cheapening the brand’s overall image, taking away some of the exclusivity of the trilogy films, and pulling focus away from the “Jedi-Sith” dichotomy. “The Acolyte” was a clumsy, poorly-written mess, an attempt to shoehorn politics into “Star Wars” that was a predictable failure.
Mark Hamill attends the premiere of Disney’s “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” in Hollywood, Calif., on Dec. 16, 2019. (Rich Fury/Getty Images)
So the result of all of these changes, the lack of creative vision and direction, is that fans now approach “Star Wars” with apathy, not excitement. There’s no benefit of the doubt that a “Star Wars” film will be fun, exciting storytelling worth seeing in theaters. And when you lose the benefit of the doubt with your customers, you’re in trouble. Disney’s version of the “Star Wars” brand? Boy is it ever in trouble.
Parazonn 