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Early House Races Could Signal GOP Upsets

By Charlie McCarthy    | Tuesday, 03 November 2026 09:39 AM EST

Republicans face an uphill battle to retain control of the House in Tuesday’s midterms, but several early races could provide clues about whether the GOP can defy expectations and hold its majority.

Democrats are heavily favored to reclaim the chamber, although Republicans still have a path to victory if they pull off upsets in key congressional districts, The Wall Street Journal reported.

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Political operatives will be watching races in Kentucky, Indiana, Florida, and Virginia as early indicators of whether Democrats are headed for a sweeping victory or Republicans can withstand the political headwinds.

Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District will offer one of the first clues when polls close at 6 p.m. ET, NPR reported.

Republican Ralph Alvarado faces Democrat Zach Dembo in a competitive contest for the seat being vacated by GOP Rep. Andy Barr, who is running to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell.

A Republican victory would help the GOP protect its existing majority, while a Democrat pickup could signal trouble elsewhere.

In Indiana’s 5th District, Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz is defending a traditionally safe GOP seat against Democrat J.D. Ford.

Spartz remains favored, but the race has tightened. A Ford upset could indicate a Democrat wave extending into reliably Republican territory.

Polls also close there at 6 p.m. ET.

Florida could prove particularly important to Republican hopes of retaining House control.

The state’s newly redrawn congressional map has put four Democrat-held districts — the 9th, 14th, 22nd, and 25th — within reach of Republicans.

The GOP’s path to a majority likely depends on flipping those seats, according to the Journal.

Florida polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

Meanwhile, Virginia’s 1st and 2nd Districts will test whether Republican incumbents can withstand strong Democrat challenges.

Rep. Rob Wittman faces Democrat Shannon Taylor in the 1st District, while Rep. Jen Kiggans is battling former Democrat Rep. Elaine Luria in the 2nd District.

Kiggans, who defeated Luria in 2022, has seen her advantage erode in their rematch.

Virginia’s Supreme Court earlier this year struck down a proposed congressional redistricting map that would have benefited Democrats.

Polls close in both Virginia districts at 7 p.m. ET.

The early results could reveal whether Republicans have enough strength to defend their narrow majority or whether Democrats are on course to seize control of the House when the new Congress convenes in January.